Current trends and future prospects of mixed migratory movements to, from, and within this region are susceptible to geopolitical shifts that are currently underway, to climate change and environmental degradation, to demographic changes both within the Middle East and in Africa and Asia from where many transiting and source migrants originate, and to economic development and forces of globalization in general. In addition to this, there is also the impact of restrictive and securitised migration policy developments in Europe, United States, and Australia that, on the one hand, affect mixed migratory flows from the Middle East and North Africa through a ripple effect across routes, and on the other, by altering the normative international migration governance frameworks in favour of externalisation, and at the expense of individuals’ ability to seek asylum, of freedom of movement, and of access to fundamental rights.

Considering these factors, what are the prospects for mixed migration in the Middle East until 2030? This briefing paper is based on research and analysis undertaken by the Mixed Migration Centre in the Middle East. Given the nature of this analysis, the accuracy of any events predicted to take place in the future does not have absolute scientific or otherwise verifiable basis.